Making a full 2026 Formula 1 drivers’ championship prediction before preseason testing was, in hindsight, a fairly silly thing to do. I was throwing darts in the dark. After 11 races, enough has changed that it is time to own the misses, keep the few calls that have held up, and make a much better informed prediction for Abu Dhabi in December.
The first version had George Russell as world champion, Max Verstappen second, Oscar Piastri third, Lando Norris fourth and Fernando Alonso fifth. At the time, it sounded plausible. Now, several of those calls look spectacularly wrong.
Why the Original Championship Prediction Fell Apart
George Russell was my preseason pick for the title, and after the opening couple of rounds I thought I had this one in the bag. I had even backed him to win the championship. But bad luck and difficulties with the car have changed the picture. George remains a very strong driver, but fourth is now the more realistic position for him at season’s end.
Max Verstappen was originally second. The Red Bull has not given him what he needs, and Max has hardly hidden his frustration with it. He is still more than capable of producing extraordinary drives, but a season-long championship challenge is a different matter when the machinery is not consistently there. I now have him fifth.
Oscar Piastri was my original third-place pick. He sits seventh at this point, and while there is plenty of season left, I do not see him climbing all the way back to third. Lando Norris has been driving very well, McLaren’s recent upgrades appear to have helped, and Lando’s confidence looks solid. Norris moves up from my original fourth-place prediction to second.
The big lesson is simple: early predictions depend too heavily on assumptions about cars that have not turned a wheel. Formula 1 form can shift quickly, particularly when upgrades arrive, reliability becomes a factor, or one team finds a development direction that works.
Fernando Alonso Was My Biggest Miss
Fernando Alonso in fifth was, without question, my worst call. He is currently 19th, nowhere near the front-running position I had imagined. Still, I do not think Aston Martin will remain where it is forever. The car looks as though it could be on the mend, and if it improves meaningfully, Fernando has the ability to take advantage of it.
My revised finishing position for Alonso is 15th. That is hardly where anyone expects a 2-time world champion to be, but it reflects the season Aston Martin has had so far rather than the quality of the driver.
Charles Leclerc is another case where the original assessment needs correcting. I placed him sixth before the season, and he is currently fourth. Despite that strong position, McLaren’s form leads me to keep Leclerc in sixth by the end of the year.
Some calls, though, have been close. Isack Hadjar is currently eighth, very close to my original forecast of seventh, and I now expect him to finish eighth. Gabriel Bortoleto has also landed exactly where I put him, sitting 14th at the halfway point and remaining my pick for 14th in the final standings.
At the bottom half of a 22-driver championship, tiny margins matter enormously. A single race can move someone several places. When drivers are separated by only 1 or 2 points, predicting every position precisely is virtually impossible.
Kimi Antonelli Has Turned the Title Fight Upside Down
Kimi Antonelli is the clearest example of how drastically a season can move. I originally predicted him eighth. That was miles off. He currently leads the championship, and I now have him winning it.
That may sound like an obvious call when a driver is already on top, but maintaining that position over the second half of a season is still a major task. Pressure changes, the development race changes, and every rival knows exactly who they must beat. Nevertheless, Kimi has put himself in the position that matters most, and he is my pick for the 2026 World Drivers’ Championship.
Lewis Hamilton has also made me look rather foolish. I predicted him 10th and received plenty of criticism for it. Fair enough. He is currently second, a result that has surprised many people who based expectations on his previous season. I do not have him staying second, but third is a very credible finish.
Carlos Sainz, meanwhile, has gone in the other direction. I originally put him ninth, but the Williams does not look likely to make enough progress this season. He is 15th at present, and I cannot see him finishing much higher than 18th.
Elsewhere, Pierre Gasly has performed admirably and is currently 10th after I predicted 18th. Alpine’s Mercedes power unit appears to have improved its prospects considerably. Gasly now looks like a genuine ninth-place finisher in the final table.
My Revised 2026 F1 Driver Standings
After 11 races, this is where I see the 2026 drivers’ championship finishing:
- Kimi Antonelli
- Lando Norris
- Lewis Hamilton
- George Russell
- Max Verstappen
- Charles Leclerc
- Oscar Piastri
- Isack Hadjar
- Pierre Gasly
- Liam Lawson
- Arvid Lindblad
- Oliver Bearman
- Franco Colapinto
- Gabriel Bortoleto
- Fernando Alonso
- Alex Albon
- Lance Stroll
- Carlos Sainz
- Nico Hulkenberg
- Esteban Ocon
- Valtteri Bottas
- Sergio Perez
Liam Lawson has been a pleasant surprise. I had him 13th, but he is currently ninth and seems to be doing precisely what the team asks of him. I expect a top-10 finish. Arvid Lindblad is another driver outperforming my first prediction. He was my 15th-place pick and is currently 11th, which is also where I see him ending the season.
Oliver Bearman could improve from 13th to 12th. Franco Colapinto, whom I had last before the season started, has done far better than expected and now looks capable of finishing 13th. Nico Hulkenberg is close to my original projection but may slide to 19th, while Esteban Ocon’s difficult year makes 20th my revised prediction.
Valtteri Bottas is the one I happened to place exactly at the halfway stage, in 21st. Sergio Perez is last at present, and while the car has clearly not helped him, I have him remaining 22nd by season’s end.
Early Thoughts on the 2027 Driver Market
There is also plenty to consider beyond the championship table. I do not see Verstappen leaving Red Bull. The more interesting questions concern the seats around him.
Liam Lawson could be vulnerable despite doing what has been asked of him, with support building for Nikola Tsolov to take that seat. Fernando Alonso may have an opportunity at Alpine, and if that happens, Franco Colapinto could potentially return to Williams. There have been enough conversations between Colapinto and James Vowles to make that an interesting possibility.
For Colapinto to return, a Williams seat must open. Neither current Williams driver appears particularly content, and Carlos Sainz could be the more likely departure. Audi is one possibility, perhaps in place of Hulkenberg. Aston Martin could also become a factor if Lance Stroll were to leave.
Haas may have an opening as well. Esteban Ocon’s form has been ordinary, and Formula 1 is ultimately a results business. Jack Doohan, Yuki Tsunoda and Sergio Perez could all be possibilities, although any Perez move would leave Cadillac needing an answer of its own.
These are only midseason calls, not certainties. But with 11 races of evidence behind us, this revised forecast has far more substance than the first effort. I will not get all 22 positions right, nobody will, but Kimi Antonelli winning the title ahead of Lando Norris and Lewis Hamilton is where I stand now.
