Who WILL WIN the 2025 F1 CHAMPIONSHIP?

The stakes in Abu Dhabi

Sunday will decide the 2025 World Drivers Championship and three drivers head to the final round with real chances: Lando Norris on 408 points, Max Verstappen on 396, and Oscar Piastri on 392. It is the first time since 2010 that more than two drivers can claim the title heading into the last race. Small margins, big pressure.

Simple maths, plenty of permutations

The arithmetic is straightforward at its core. Max needs to outscore Lando by 13 points, Oscar needs to outscore Lando by 17, and any permutation that leaves a tie is settled by count back: the driver with more wins takes the title. Right now all three stand on seven wins. If wins remain equal after the race, seconds come into play — and Lando leads that category with eight seconds, versus five for Max and four for Oscar.

Why qualifying matters more than ever

Qualifying at Yas Marina is often decisive. Over the last decade the pole sitter at this venue has consistently gone on to win the race. Pole gives clear track position into the tricky first sector and with three title contenders so close, track position could equate to a championship.

How each driver can win

The scenarios reduce to a few tidy rules:

• Lando Norris: Finish P1, P2, or P3 and the championship is his in most scenarios. He simply has to protect his advantage and avoid a DNF.
• Max Verstappen: Needs to outscore Lando by 13 points. A win combined with a low finish for Lando can hand Max his fifth title.
• Oscar Piastri: Needs an even bigger swing — 17 points on Lando — so an outright win plus Lando finishing low or retired is his cleanest route.

If anyone wins the race outright (Max or Oscar) there is no possibility of a three-way tie on wins, so the title is decided without count back drama.

Turn one madness: start strategy and nerves

Expect a chaotic opening minute. Max is unlikely to be timid — he will attack. Lando will approach the first laps with the championship in mind; a DNF will almost certainly remove him from contention unless both rivals also fail to finish. That makes turn one the most intriguing corner of the season. By lap three the top three should have settled, but those opening seconds could determine everything.

Pit stops, strategy and the advantage of the first stop

With Yas Marina often favoring a one-stop strategy, the first pit stop is crucial. A slow stop can cost a place or two and, in a three-way title fight, a place is a championship swing. Last race Oscar lost around a second on his first stop compared with Lando. That single second can be the difference between staying ahead of a teammate or dropping into a fight you cannot afford.

Team orders, loyalty and what McLaren might do

If Max leads and Oscar is P3 ahead of Lando, will McLaren ask Oscar to move over? Teams plan for such moments. While team principal Andrea Stella has publicly said Oscar is free to fight Lando for the title, reality and team priorities can mix in high-pressure situations. If Oscar cannot win the race himself, moving Lando ahead could be the pragmatic call for the team. It would also buy Oscar future goodwill within McLaren.

Sabotaging a pit stop deliberately? Unlikely. It goes against the core ethics of professional racing and risks enormous reputational damage. Internal strategy conversations are one thing; deliberate interference is another.

Other drivers and the danger of interference

Most of the other 17 drivers have little to gain by actively influencing the title fight. One exception might be teammates and rivals with indirect interests, but deliberately taking a contender out is a high-risk, low-reward gamble that would be widely condemned. Past incidents show how quickly online abuse and conspiracy theories spread when fortunes are decided in controversial ways.

Abuse, backlash and the human cost

Recent events have shown the darker side of fandom. An incident in Qatar led to targeted online abuse against a young driver who was accused of facilitating a rival. That kind of vitriol can be extreme: teams have recorded thousands of abusive messages and reported them to the sport’s governing body. Attempts to blacklist abusive fans in principle make sense, but in practice they are difficult to enforce.

The lesson is clear: sport needs to protect competitors from harassment while maintaining the passionate energy that makes championship finales so electric.

What happens after the chequered flag

The winner will linger. Whether it is a podium celebration, a parc fermé moment or team photos, the champion typically stays at the circuit for hours, meeting crews, sponsors and media. If Max wins and is champion, he will celebrate with his team. If a McLaren driver takes the crown, Max will likely exit quickly — understandable when the emotional stakes are so high.

Beyond Abu Dhabi: defending the title and 2026 uncertainty

Winning here matters for legacy and opportunity. For a McLaren winner, the 2026 cars are unknown territory; a single championship might be the only shot if development stalls. For Max, defending the title opens another chapter. The sport itself benefits from a close finale — ratings spike and the deciding race pulls huge global attention.

My prediction

Picking a champion from three evenly matched contenders is tough, but the sensible bet is the driver who arrives with the points buffer and the tie-break advantage. Lando Norris is in front and hard to displace. He needs a solid finish rather than a victory to secure the crown. That reliability, the extra seconds finished across the season, and his momentum make him the likeliest 2025 champion.

Key takeaways

• Pole matters — Yas Marina often hands the race winner a decisive advantage.
• First pit stop can swing positions and the championship.
• Team dynamics may influence outcomes but deliberate sabotage is unlikely.
• Protect competitors — online abuse after controversial moments is a recurring problem the sport must manage.

Frequently asked questions

What does each driver need to win the 2025 championship?

Lando needs a strong finish, typically P1, P2 or P3, to secure the title in most scenarios. Max must outscore Lando by 13 points. Oscar must outscore Lando by 17 points. Tie-breaks are resolved first by race wins, then by second places.

Why is qualifying so important at Abu Dhabi?

Over the past decade the pole sitter at Yas Marina has often converted pole into victory. Clear track position helps through the opening laps and into the pit windows, and with three contenders so close, track position can determine championship outcomes.

Could team orders decide the title?

Team orders are possible in final-race scenarios. While team principals publicly support internal fairness, pragmatic decisions about position swaps can be made if one driver cannot win but their teammate can. Such decisions carry reputational and contractual implications.

Will other drivers try to influence the result?

Most drivers have little to gain by interfering. A few could indirectly influence the race through on-track battles, but deliberately taking a contender out is risky and would prompt severe backlash and penalties.

Who is the favourite to win the 2025 championship?

The most likely champion is Lando Norris due to his points lead and tie-break advantage in second places. While Max and Oscar both have paths to the title, they require larger swings and near-perfect race execution.