Who Will Lose Their Red Bull F1 Seat in 2026?

Red Bull finds itself in one of the trickiest driver selection puzzles in recent memory. There are five drivers and only four seats across Red Bull Racing and RB F1 (V-Carb). With the season winding down and just a handful of races left, the decision that will shape the 2026 grid is looming. This is my breakdown of who is in the running, how the drivers stack up, the political influences behind the choice, and what it means for Red Bull, Honda, and the new Ford-powered engine program.

The decision-makers and the power balance

Putting drivers in the cars is rarely just about lap times. Two men inside the team carry significant influence: Laurent Mekies, the engineer with a clear technical vision, and Helmut Marko, the long-time talent guru who champions junior drivers. Their arguments do not exist in a vacuum. Oliver Mintzlaff, the CEO in Austria, plus the two major Red Bull shareholders, Chalerm Yoovidhya and Mark Mateschitz, must be convinced before any announcement is made.

That chess board determines much of the outcome. Marko is famous for pushing hungry young drivers, while Mekies is more measured, mindful of long term driver development and team stability. So when you hear Marko backing a youngster hard, it does not guarantee a seat without internal technical support.

Max Verstappen: untouchable in the short term

One thing is clear: Max Verstappen is locked in. The team revolves around him. His average finishing position this season sits at 4.1, and while his chance of a fifth Drivers Championship is slim, he mathematically remains in contention. The remaining events structure matters: there are a combination of feature races and sprint weekends left, and the points available mean that even an impeccable run from Max would still depend on Lando Norris dropping places to swing the title.

Since Laurent Mekies joined the senior team, performance has been notably sharper. Mekies is an engineer who complements Max’s aggressive driving, and that relationship matters when the team finalizes who sits beside him in 2026.

The five drivers in line for four seats

Here are the drivers under consideration across the Red Bull Racing and RB F1 cars:

• Max Verstappen — guaranteed at Red Bull Racing
• Isack Hadjar — rated by Mekies and Marko as a future team leader
• Arvid Lindblad — Red Bull junior with huge potential
• Yuki Tsunoda — veteran backed by Honda
• Liam Lawson — tenacious and determined, but without big commercial backing

Isack Hadjar — the long term heir apparent?

Isack Hadjar has been impressive in his rookie outings. After a difficult opening round crash, he recovered and now averages 11.6 for finishing position this season. He has also shown he enjoys the Red Bull junior environment and has even scored a podium in the junior setup.

Both Mekies and Marko rate Hadjar highly, and the team sees him as a possible successor to Max. But promotion risks exist. Elevating him too early could break his confidence; repeatedly being dominated by a world class teammate is not easy on a young driver’s psyche. Mekies is concerned that dropping him into a high-pressure seat next to Max could do more harm than good.

There is a strategic, long-term perspective at play: if Hadjar struggles next year and is overwhelmed by Max’s dominance, Red Bull might end up without a proven replacement for the longer term. That is why many pundits suggest leaving him in RB F1 for another year, letting him find his feet, then moving him up when he is more mature.

Arvid Lindblad — the teenage breakout star

Arvid Lindblad got attention after a strong FP1 outing in Mexico and was the youngest driver to win an F2 race earlier in the year. He is only 18 and, if promoted, would be the youngest driver on the 2026 grid. Arvid is part of the Red Bull Junior team and has caught Marko’s eye. He is seventh in the F2 standings with two rounds to go and is 81 points from the top, which shows both his promise and the remaining work to do.

Marko is keen to push him up the ladder. Mekies is more cautious. The internal debate is classic Red Bull: do you accelerate a promising junior, or let him mature in a less pressurized environment first?

Yuki Tsunoda — the Honda connection

Yuki Tsunoda is now a relative veteran in the Red Bull ecosystem. His average finishing position this season is 12.4. Performance-wise he has struggled in the so-called second Red Bull seat at times, but the commercial and technical ties he brings to the table are significant.

Honda remains a critical partner. Even though Red Bull and Ford are building the 2026 engines together, Red Bull still needs Honda for its TPC program — testing older cars that use leased engine units. Red Bull relies on Honda’s staff and expertise to run those programs and pays substantial sums for that support. Additionally, from a marketing and commercial perspective, Yuki in a Red Bull entry carries enormous value in Japan. Honda is willing to invest heavily to keep Yuki in the Red Bull fold, either at the senior team or at RB F1.

Liam Lawson — grit without the corporate clout

Liam Lawson averages 12.9 this year. He does not have the massive backing that Honda provides, but he has shown dogged determination and a willingness to fight for every position. Lawson’s case is one of merit versus money; he is a solid driver but lacks the same strategic commercial value that Yuki brings.

In any cutthroat selection race, commercial and technical partnerships can sway outcomes as much as raw pace. Lawson’s fate might therefore depend on the balance of power between Mekies and Marko.

How the internal politics might play out

Up until recently I believed Hadjar was the near-certainty for the Red Bull Racing seat. That view has shifted. If Helmut Marko retains the clout he has historically wielded, expect him to push hard for Isack. If not, Yuki’s Honda backing becomes decisive, and Yuki could retain the senior seat while Isack remains in RB F1, with Arvid and Liam fighting for the last available slot across the junior program.

The risk calculus is not purely sporting. Brand exposure, technical partnerships, and long-term succession planning all weigh in. Mekies seems more inclined to protect a young driver’s mental and developmental trajectory, whereas Marko thrives pushing prospects into the deep end.

Can Max still win the championship?

Yes, but it is a long shot. There are six events remaining in the season that matter for this calculation: four feature races and two sprint races. If Max wins every one of those events, he would add 116 points. That alone does not guarantee the title without help from Lando Norris. If Lando were to finish second in every remaining event, Lando would still clinch the championship by a narrow margin of six points. So Max needs perfection and some slippage from his main rival.

Meanwhile, Max has been keeping his focus but also taking personal time, jetting to Brazil after the Mexico race to regroup with family. Brazil has produced unpredictable weather and wild races in recent years, so the remaining calendar still has potential to swing things dramatically.

The engine question: Red Bull, Ford, and Honda

One of the biggest strategic elements for Red Bull beyond driver selection is the power unit program for 2026. The Porsche-Red Bull partnership collapsed in 2022, and Red Bull subsequently struck a deal with Ford. That partnership has evolved from an initial hybrid support role into a much wider collaboration covering elements of the combustion engine and the electric power unit.

Ford says the engine has been running to internal benchmarks and expects to be ready on time. The first public indicator will be during pre-season testing, but the initial Barcelona test is closed to the media and unlikely to reveal outright performance. Bahrain tests will follow, but the clearest benchmark will arrive during the first qualifying session in Melbourne on March 15, when we see the 22-car grid under competitive pressure for the first time.

If the Ford-Red Bull engine delivers as promised, Max will have no sporting reason to leave Red Bull beyond 2026. If it falls short, that opens longer-term questions about retaining top talent.

What about Christian Horner?

Christian Horner is no longer running the team but he remains a figure of interest. He settled a court case and reportedly secured a substantial payout. He appears to be keeping a lower public profile, focusing on personal projects and exploring possibilities as either a team principal or an investor in the future.

Crucially, major decisions at Red Bull now require consultation with Mintzlaff and the shareholders, so Horner’s old near-total control is a thing of the past.

My read and likely scenarios

Here are the scenarios I think are most probable based on the current balance of power:

1. If Helmut Marko has sway, Isack Hadjar will be promoted to the senior seat beside Max and Arvid Lindblad will remain in the junior program at RB F1.
2. If Marko does not carry that influence, Yuki Tsunoda’s Honda backing could keep him in the senior seat, Isack stays at RB F1 to mature, and Arvid or Liam fight for the remaining seat.
3. Whichever way it goes, Max stays. The real question is how Red Bull balances immediate race performance with long-term succession planning and commercial commitments to Honda.

Who are the five drivers competing for four Red Bull seats in 2026?

Max Verstappen, Isack Hadjar, Arvid Lindblad, Yuki Tsunoda, and Liam Lawson are the five drivers under consideration across Red Bull Racing and RB F1 for 2026.

Why might Yuki Tsunoda keep his seat despite mixed results?

Yuki has strong commercial and technical backing from Honda. Red Bull still needs Honda’s expertise for their TPC program and marketing value in Japan, which makes Tsunoda an attractive asset beyond pure lap time metrics.

What is holding Isack Hadjar back from an automatic promotion?

The main concern is developmental timing. Elevating a young driver too early, particularly into a car dominated by a world champion team mate, can harm confidence and long-term progress. Laurent Mekies is cautious about rushing Hadjar.

Can Max still win the 2025 championship?

Mathematically yes. If Max wins all remaining events he would score 116 points, but he would still need Lando Norris to drop enough places. If Lando finishes second in every remaining event, he would still win by six points.

How important is the Ford engine partnership for Red Bull’s future?

Extremely important. The new Red Bull-Ford power unit is central to Red Bull’s competitiveness after splitting with Honda. If Ford’s engine is strong and reliable, it secures Red Bull’s future and keeps top talent like Max happy to stay beyond 2026.