Who WILL WIN the 2025 F1 CHAMPIONSHIP?

Where the title fight stands right now

I’ve been watching, photographing and living Formula 1 for nearly 8 years, and right now the championship is razor close. There are four drivers still mathematically able to take the crown, but the realistic fight is between three names: Lando Norris, Oscar Piastri and Max Verstappen.

Here are the numbers I’m using as the starting point: Lando Norris leads on 357 points, Oscar Piastri sits one point behind, and Max Verstappen is 36 points off the lead. George Russell is 99 points adrift and, while technically still in with a mathematical shout, he would need a string of miracles to bridge the gap with four feature races and two sprint races left. With a maximum of 116 points available from the remaining rounds, George’s chances are effectively nil.

That leaves a three-horse race. Which of these three will cross the line in Abu Dhabi with the big trophy? Below I run through form, circuits and race-by-race predictions that lead me to my pick.

Form, momentum and what it tells us

Form matters in the closing stages of any season. Look at the last five races: Lando has been trending upward, Max has been a model of consistency—three wins in those five and never missing the podium—and Oscar has looked patchy lately.

That patchiness for Oscar is concerning, but form isn’t linear. Drivers bounce back, and he’s due some luck. Lando’s confidence has to be sky-high after a dominant weekend in Mexico City. Max, meanwhile, looks unlikely to drop off; expect him to keep collecting top three finishes in the final six races.

When you blend form with circuit characteristics and weather, certain tracks favour certain cars and drivers. That’s the basis of the race-by-race breakdown that follows.

Round 1: Brazil — wet, chaotic and a sprint weekend

Interlagos is famously unpredictable. It’s also a sprint weekend and the forecast frequently threatens rain for qualifying and the sprint. Last year Max drove from 17th to victory in a wet race here, a performance that still gives me chills. On paper the McLarens should like the undulating, high-downforce layout, but Red Bull have improved on high-downforce tracks as the season progressed.

Because rain tends to level the playing field and because Max has shown racecraft in the wet like few others, I give him the edge at Brazil. The circuit suits Oscar better than Mexico did, so expect him closer to the front, but in a wet sprint I do not see him getting the better of Lando without a slice of fortune.

Predictions for the weekend:

• Sprint qualifying / sprint: Max Verstappen P1, Lando Norris P2, Oscar Piastri P3
• Feature race (Sunday): Max Verstappen P1, Oscar Piastri P2, Lando Norris P3

If that unfolds, the standings would tighten with Max closing in and Oscar reclaiming the lead. Interlagos has a history of wild qualifying sessions in the wet and last-minute red flags can shuffle the order drastically, so while I’ve predicted clean laps from the top three, expect surprises elsewhere.

Round 2: Las Vegas — a Red Bull playground

Las Vegas is hard to read for McLaren. The long straights and slower, technical sections generally play into Red Bull’s hands. Historically neither Lando nor Oscar has qualified or finished better than P6 at this venue, so it is not a natural McLaren stronghold.

Max has won here before, and I suspect he will be favourite once again. The 2025 McLaren is a big step forward compared with last year, so expect it to be competitive with Ferrari and Mercedes, but probably not quite enough to stop a dominant Red Bull weekend.

My Vegas predictions:

• Qualifying grid: Max Verstappen P1, Lando Norris P5, Oscar Piastri P7
• Race result: Max Verstappen P1, Lando Norris P4, Oscar Piastri P6

If that happens, Lando would still lead the championship but the margin narrows and the pressure mounts. Vegas is a real opportunity for Max to claw back significant points in a single weekend.

Round 3: Doha, Qatar — McLaren territory

Doha is high speed and high downforce: a comfortable fit for McLaren. Last year the sprint was a McLaren one-two, and although team tactics came into play, the underlying pace was obvious. On the feature weekend they had tight qualifying times, and without Lando’s stop-and-go penalty his race would have likely been stronger.

The 2025 McLaren appears to have closed the gap significantly to Red Bull on tracks of this type, and Doha should be a place where Lando and Oscar fight for the front. I expect them to beat Max on outright pace here.

Predictions:

• Qualifying for sprint and feature: Lando Norris P1, Oscar Piastri P2, Max Verstappen P3
• Feature race: McLarens split the podium with a comfortable gap to Max

With McLaren dominance in Qatar, the standings heading to Abu Dhabi would leave Lando with a healthy advantage, while Max would still be mathematically in it but needing everything to go right in the finale.

Round 4: Abu Dhabi — the decider

Yas Marina is a mix of long fast corners and technical sequences that reward balance and stability. In recent years McLaren has shown strong performance around this track, and both drivers have qualified well under the lights. Meanwhile Max has been a formidable pole sitter and race winner here historically, though those results often came when Red Bull enjoyed a greater car advantage.

Expect gripping qualifying under the lights. If the season follows the path I’ve mapped out, the title could be decided in Abu Dhabi with Lando having everything to lose, Oscar everything to gain and Max sitting back hoping for a dramatic swing.

My Abu Dhabi predictions:

• Qualifying: Lando Norris P1, Oscar Piastri P2, Max Verstappen P3
• Race and title outcome: Lando Norris secures his first World Drivers Championship, finishing 18 points clear of Oscar Piastri, with Max Verstappen third overall and 34 points behind the winner

Those final numbers assume a very specific run of results across four weekends. It is a plausible route, but far from guaranteed.

Championship math and the fine margins

There are four feature races and two sprints left, and a perfect weekend haul can net a driver huge points. The maximum available from the remaining calendar is 116 points. That means swings can be huge, and a single DNF or a big penalty can be decisive.

Here are the key practical realities:

1. Consistency is gold. Max’s strength this season is delivering podiums and large hauls even when not winning. That keeps him in play despite being behind on points right now.
2. Track-suitability matters. McLaren is stronger on technical, high-downforce circuits while Red Bull remains formidable on venues with long straights and strong traction zones.
3. Weather and incidents are wildcards. Brazil and other wet weekends have a habit of producing chaotic outcomes that can rewrite the table overnight.
4. Bad luck is often distributed. One of these three will likely suffer at least one misfortune in the run-in. Finding the least unlucky one matters.

Put simply, if Lando keeps his current momentum and McLaren keeps delivering a fast car on the right tracks, he has the best mixture of pace, confidence and positioning to take the crown. Oscar needs to arrest his slide and find consistency; Max needs near perfection and help from misfortune elsewhere.

Why I pick Lando Norris

After weighing form, circuits, weather and the remaining points, my pick is Lando Norris to clinch the 2025 World Drivers Championship in Abu Dhabi. The reasons are straightforward:

• Momentum and confidence after a dominant Mexico show.
• A car that suits several of the remaining venues, notably Doha and Abu Dhabi.
• Relative qualifying consistency over Oscar at circuits where both have struggled historically, which limits potential shock losses.
• Oscar’s recent wobble and Max’s need to rely on near-perfect weekends make Lando the most practically positioned driver.

That is not to say Lando is a runaway favourite. The margins are thin, and a couple of swing weekends could easily flip the script. If Max puts together a dominant Las Vegas and a lights-to-flag win somewhere else, or if Oscar rediscovers form at the right time, the outcome changes immediately.

Caveats and the beauty of uncertainty

Motorsport is a game of fine margins. My scenario requires several results to land as predicted, and in racing you can never assume that will happen. Tyres, strategy calls, safety cars, penalties and weather conspire to produce outcomes no model fully anticipates.

All three contenders are exceptional drivers. I would be delighted to see any of them lift the trophy. Oscar is a fellow countryman to some and a very talented driver. Max, if he staged a comeback to win this title, would cement himself among the all-time greats. Lando, in my view, combines pace, racecraft and the kind of momentum that can carry a championship through the final rounds.

How many points are still available in the 2025 season?

There are four feature races and two sprint races remaining, with a maximum of 116 points available to any driver who wins every remaining race and gains all sprint and fastest lap points.

Who are the realistic title contenders?

While four drivers are mathematically capable, the realistic contenders are Lando Norris, Oscar Piastri and Max Verstappen. George Russell is mathematically in it but would need highly unlikely results to catch up.

Which tracks favour McLaren?

High-speed, high-downforce circuits such as Doha and Abu Dhabi suit the McLaren package. Interlagos can also suit them, but its unpredictable weather adds variability.

Can Max still win the title?

Yes. Max is still within striking distance, and a dominant weekend or two—especially at tracks like Las Vegas—could swing the championship back in his favour. He needs near-perfect results combined with misfortune for his rivals.

What are the biggest wildcards in the final rounds?

Weather (especially at Brazil), safety cars, qualifying red flags and penalties are the largest wildcards. Any of these can create dramatic swings in the standings.

Final thoughts

The run to Abu Dhabi promises drama. If the season plays out along the lines I’ve mapped, Lando Norris will seal his first World Drivers Championship. But that outcome depends on consistent pace, clean weekends, and a little bit of fortune. Expect twists, expect sparks and enjoy the closing act of what has already been a compelling season.

Whatever happens, the last four race weekends will be must-watch TV for fans of strategy, speed and high-stakes drama. Stay tuned. The championship is far from done and every lap, every tyre choice and every overtake could change history.